Demand growth is shrinking and support for UHV lines weakening. The economics of existing UHV lines has been poorer than expected and this is further reducing enthusiasm for expansion, according to The Lantau Group research.
Three key points are summarized below:
(1) As of March 2017, China’s UHV network stretched across 18,000km; a further seven projects currently under construction will extend this out to 30,000km.
Bottomline: The 13th Five Year Plan has overseen a major expansion of the network, but the grid still lags original plans.
(2) The recent apparent pause in further UHV approvals reflects several factors.
Ambitious renewable targets have only exacerbated this oversupply.
(3) Development plans for coal, hydro and renewable capacity additions all affect the prospects for new UHV projects. While Sichuan and Yunnan provinces are both capable of substantial hydro additions, there appears to have been little appetite to approve new UHV lines out of these provinces. At least part of the problem lies in poor national and regional coordination. Power planning lies with different levels of authorities, and this exacerbates the problems of coordinating successful inter-provincial power flows as each province independently seeks to build out its own new capacity, reducing any need for power imports or the UHV lines that would carry it.
Bottomline: The cancellation of new coal capacity will likely delay associated UHV projects while renewable generation capacity may not be reliable enough to support UHV lines unaided.
More at HVDC Belt and Road 2019 China Conference
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Three key points are summarized below:
(1) As of March 2017, China’s UHV network stretched across 18,000km; a further seven projects currently under construction will extend this out to 30,000km.
Bottomline: The 13th Five Year Plan has overseen a major expansion of the network, but the grid still lags original plans.
(2) The recent apparent pause in further UHV approvals reflects several factors.
- First, the technical challenge of interconnecting China’s vast power system cannot be underestimated.
- Second, UHV expansion is likely producing less benefit than originally expected due to slowing growth in electricity consumption and the near ubiquitous problem of overcapacity.
Ambitious renewable targets have only exacerbated this oversupply.
 |
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(3) Development plans for coal, hydro and renewable capacity additions all affect the prospects for new UHV projects. While Sichuan and Yunnan provinces are both capable of substantial hydro additions, there appears to have been little appetite to approve new UHV lines out of these provinces. At least part of the problem lies in poor national and regional coordination. Power planning lies with different levels of authorities, and this exacerbates the problems of coordinating successful inter-provincial power flows as each province independently seeks to build out its own new capacity, reducing any need for power imports or the UHV lines that would carry it.
Bottomline: The cancellation of new coal capacity will likely delay associated UHV projects while renewable generation capacity may not be reliable enough to support UHV lines unaided.
More at HVDC Belt and Road 2019 China Conference
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